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The object is to place points on the performers you think will go the farthest in the competition. The more points you place on a signer, and the farther he/she goes, the more points you score. At stake for the winner: the opportunity to rub it in the rest of the regulars' faces during the offseason.
1. This contest is open to all posters on the alt.tv.american-idol newsgroup, regardless whether they are regulars, semi-regulars, or lurkers. There is no limit on the size of the field. The more, the merrier.
2. On the afternoon of Thursday, March 10, 2005, I will post a call for entries on ATAI. Players wishing to participate may either reply to the newsgroup or e-mail me at tjwuthrich[at]verizon[dot]net.
1. Each player wishing to participate will be given 100 Certainty Points (CPs) to distribute among the twelve AI finalists however he/she wishes.
2. The following restricitions apply on dividing your CPs:
Other than that, you have complete flexibilty. You can give CPs to all sixteen of the remaining candidates, or to just five of them, or anything in between, as long as you comply with the restrictions above.
3. If an entry is determined to be invalid, the player will be notified of what he/she did wrong and will be asked to try again.
4. If I receive multiple entries from a single participant, I will accept his/her _latest_ entry. This is most helpful if you wish to make changes or if your entry is invalid.
For example: you are 40% certain that Carrie Underwood will win the competition, 30% certain that Constantine Maroulis will win, 25% certain that Bo Bice will win, 3% sure that Scott Savol will win, and 2% sure of Mikalah Gordon, your entry would look like this:
Carrie Underwood - 40 Constantine Maroulis - 30 Bo Bice - 25 Scott Savol - 3 Mikalah Gordon - 2
Last names are optional, so long as I know where the CPs are going, and they do not have to be in any order. Just don't try to give points to people like David Brown (eliminated in the semifinals), Jaclyn Crum (eliminated in the Hollywood rounds), Erin Maynard (did not pass the initial audition), Kelly Clarkson (wrong season), or Rob Mariano (wrong show). J
5. Entries must be received by Tuesday, March 15, 2005, 6:00 pm Eastern Time--two hours before the first performance show. Make sure to include the name you wish to go by on the leaderboard; if this is omitted, I will take the name in the From header of the entry.
1. Each Wednesday, the singer with the fewest votes from viewers is eliminated from the competition. All of that singer's CPs are multiplied based on how long he/she lasted. For example, the first finalist cut is given a multiplier of 1, the second 2, the third 3, and so on up to 11 for the runner-up and 14 for the winner (12 + 2 bonus points). Your score is determined by adding up the multiplied points, and the player with the highest score at the end of the season is the winner.
2. (The Corey Clark Exception) In the event that a performer is released from the competition for reasons not involving the viewer vote, that performer will be given a multiplier of zero, meaning all CPs placed on him/her are lost.
3. In the event two or more performers are eliminated solely by viewer vote in the same week, the one with the lowest vote total shall take the lower finish. If the the identites of the lowest- and next-lowest totals are not revealed, their positions shall be split evenly. For example, had this contest been in conducted in season 1, Ejay Day would have a multiplier of 1 and Jim Verraros 2.
The Certainty Contest is a game of strategy. To win, you want to place the most points on the singers you think will last the longest. Using last year's finalists as an example, the best possible entry would be Fantasia 50, Diana 48, and Jasmine and La Toya 1 each, which would score 50*14 + 48*11 + 1*10 + 1*9 = 700 + 528 + 10 + 9 = 1,247 points. However, you have be careful. If your entry read Leah 50, Matt 48, Amy 1, Camile 1, you'd have the exact opposite outcome for a score of 50*1 + 48*2 + 1*3 + 1*4 = 153 points. Your final score will fall somewhere in between 153 and 1,247, with the average score being 700.
The safest strategy is to assign CPs evenly to all twelve finalists. This comes to 8 CPs per singer, with four of them getting a ninth CP. This raises your minimum score to 9*10+8*70 = 650 points, but the best you can do is 9*44+8*36 = 684--which is below the average score above. The best possible strategy is to take risks, but watch out--if Simon Cowell compares your 50 CP singer's week 1 performance to chocolate-onion ice cream, your risk could backfire.
1. After the results show--usually within 24 hours--I will post the weekly leaderboard showing the current score and remaining CPs for all participants. From that point on, all you have to do is root (and vote) for your favorites.
2. Like on the Survivor contest, I will announce the average number CPs for all singers and use this to create a false entry. You can use this entry to gauge how you are doing against the field as a whole.
3. Because I, commissioner of the AI Certainty Contest, have no advance knowledge of how the votes will go (how can I, since AI is live on the East Coast from here on out?), I shall participate as well.
4. On the weekly leaderboard, players will be ranked based on their expected score, the average of the highest and lowest possible scores they can achieve. All three scores will match after the final week.
5. If two or more players are tied at the end of the season, the player who has given the most CPs to the AI champion will win. If the players are still tied, the player who has given the most CPs to the runner-up will win, and so on. If the tying entries turn out to be identical, all players involved will be crowned co-champions.
For more Certainty Contest action, visit Nathan Sanders's Survivor Contest or Peca Fan's Amazing Race Contest.